Presidential Election 2008 prediction

I've had this prediction for a while now, but I want it in writing to look back on.

Today, April 1st, 2008, I am committing to my presidential election predictions. This isn't an April Fool's joke.

Round 1: Nominations
Democrats: Obama
Republicans: McCain obviously, but Paul and his followers are for some reason still in the race. I guess McCain could drop dead and leave Paul the winner by default?

Round 2: November Election
McCain.

Explanation:
This all comes from my gut, no fancy polls or statistics or anything like that. I predicted both of Bush's wins in the same way. Basically, my hunch is that the bad guy always wins. Life isn't some fairy tale; it's filled with corruption, hate, ignorance. And usually covered with an excellent PR/marketing campaign.

There's a chance if Hilary got the nomination she could beat McCain, but only because she is as big a bad guy as he is. Lies and deceit, that's what wins the American heart. It'd be hard for her to lie enough to beat out McCain's ignorance, but I think she's got it in her.

As you can see, I don't think Obama will make it. Why? Because he's honest, and he gives people hope. He wants change. He's the good guy.